The news, with the numbers
Inside Self-Storage’s September development roundup (ISS, Sep 2):
Waterbury, Connecticut: brothers Sami and Nazeeh Abunasra bought the former Macy’s at Brass Mill Center in 2023 for $3.3 million and are seeking approval to convert part of the dead retail box to self-storage.
Grand Junction, Colorado: Guardian Storage opened 85,000 square feet across six buildings — climate-controlled and drive-up.
Priceville, Alabama: JB&L received permission for 75,860 square feet, 370 climate-controlled and drive-up units across 11 buildings.
Clarksville, Tennessee: Cherry Station Self Storage opened 34,800 square feet — 288 drive-up units plus 68 outdoor vehicle spaces.
And the pattern behind the list: the new supply is arriving as conversions and infill, not greenfield. The Waterbury Macy’s. Sacramento’s four-story former Macy’s, vacant since 2016, proposed as 106,600 square feet of storage plus retail. When cities stop zoning for storage, capital buys the box that’s already zoned.
The belief we’ve held all along
The competition is the entitled site, not the building. It cuts both ways. Last week’s story was the front door closing: Elk Grove’s two-year moratorium, Cashmere’s extension fight — the greenfield path is throttled by ordinance, not economics (#011, live). This week’s story is the side door: supply doesn’t vanish, it converts. Dead retail becomes the new pipeline.
What that means for an existing owner
The converter doesn’t fight for entitlements. They buy the dead box cheap — $3.3 million for a former Macy’s — the shell is already built, the parking is already there, and the opening timeline is measured in renovation months, not entitlement years. That’s a faster, cheaper competitor than a greenfield developer ever was.
But here’s the structural part, and it matters. The conversion box sits where the demand already is — urban and suburban infill, multi-story, climate-controlled, expensive product. It is not a drive-up facility in a tertiary market. The moat doesn’t disappear; it changes shape. The entitled site is still the moat — the dead mall is the entitled site wearing a new sign. The tertiary drive-up market stays protected by distance and the cost of land; the urban box competes on the urban rent roll.
What that means for a buyer
Underwrite the boxes, not only the cranes. When you’re looking at a market, map the dead retail within five miles of a target facility, check the zoning board agendas, and price the conversion as the competitor it is. Supply you can see is supply you can underwrite.
The honest limits
Conversions cluster where the dead retail is — cities and older suburbs. Tertiary markets see fewer of them. And a conversion still has to work on its own merits: the building was abandoned for a reason, and renovation costs eat a cheap purchase price fast. We’re describing what’s happening, not predicting what will.
The close
The entitled site is the moat. The dead mall is the entitled site wearing a new sign. Know which boxes can become competitors before you underwrite the deal.
Run the numbers
Map every dead retail box within five miles of the target. Check the zoning calendar. Price what a conversion would cost a competitor — purchase, renovation, lease-up — and ask whether the market absorbs both of you. Run the numbers, then call the county. Then run them again.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Figures in these posts are historical results for those specific deals or the cited industry data, not projections, and nothing here constitutes investment advice. The math that decides a deal is the math you do before you sign — underwrite it yourself, or have someone you trust walk it with you.